Polymarket Credibility Crisis After Whales Force UFO Vote Resolution Without Evidence
Polymarket faces a severe credibility challenge after large traders manipulated a $16 million prediction market on whether the TRUMP administration would declassify UFO files by 2025. The market resolved "YES" despite no public evidence of document releases, driven by last-minute buying that pushed prices to 99.9 cents.
The outcome relied on UMA's Optimistic Oracle, which endured multiple disputes before finalization. The process involves a two-hour challenge window followed by a token-weighted vote, concentrating power among liquidity providers. Whales rationally paid NEAR par, anticipating undisputed settlement—even without corroborating federal disclosures.
No declassification notices appear in National Archives UAP resources or Pentagon AARO updates. The December 2025 additions to DoD imagery archives reflect routine publication flows, not WHITE House action. This discrepancy between market resolution and factual absence exposes systemic vulnerabilities in decentralized oracle mechanisms.
